Horticultural land is among those most likely to be challenged by climate change in coming years according to a new research paper.
A new research paper in The Journal of Applied Ecology predicts that all UK habitats are set to be severely challenged by climate change in coming years but that some are facing greater problems than others.
The paper suggests that "the coming two decades will see changes in conditions of approximately equivalent magnitude to the entire period between the present and the early 20th century."
The authors go on to say that significant exposure to 21st-century climate change is likely to have a range of impacts on arable and horticultural land. These include potential yield gains and changes in the crops which can be grown as well as increased damage from extreme weather events and the rise of new agricultural weeds.
According to authors, the effects of human-driven climate change are likely to fall hardest on arable and horticultural land, chalk grasslands and urban and suburban areas. The paper also shows that climate change is affecting the UK unevenly, with southern, central and eastern England and upland areas most at risk. They predict that in a worst-case scenario for greenhouse gas emissions much of England could experience Mediterranean-type climatic conditions with hotter, drier summers by 2061-2080.
Chalk grassland appears to be the semi-natural land cover most exposed to climate change. These habitats are extremely vulnerable, with 80 per cent already having been lost since the 1930s.
Warming temperatures have seen some wild plant species such as Lizard orchid (Himantoglossum hircinum), Bee orchid (Ophrys apifera) and Pyramidal orchid (Anacamptis pyramidalis) expand northwards in their range. Some rare arctic-alpine plants including Norwegian Mugwort (Artemisia norvegica), Diapensia (Diapensia lapponica), and Mountain Sandwort (Sabulina rubella) are at risk of going extinct in Britain as uplands become more temperate.
Dr Oliver Wilson, Report Author, University of York and Plantlife, commented:
“In the face of climate change, many plant populations will need to move to survive, but that is made difficult by human activity such as building pressures. Intact habitats and wildlife corridors - from hedgerows to road verges - offer lifelines to climate migrant species so they must be effectively managed.”
